You could make the argument that 2011 was the year of the pitcher.
It had been almost 20 years since a pitcher won the MVP award and it had become such taboo that few thought it would happen again. But when Justin Verlander goes off and sweeps the pitching triple crown, you have to start re-evaluating yourself. The righty won 24 games with a 2.40 ERA and 250 strikeouts to lead the Detroit Tigers to their first playoff berth since 2006.
Not only did he reopen the conversation on a pitcher’s worth, but he makes 2012 a really interesting year for hurlers. In 2011, Verlander won 24 games, most of any pitcher since 2002, followed by Ian Kennedy and Clayton Kershaw’s 21. It was the first time in three years that many pitchers got to 20 games in a season.
You can even see it in fantasy drafts. Top pitchers are going in bulk early in drafts, taking up a larger chunk of the top 50 picks than in year’s past.
Almost all of the game’s top pitchers are young flame throwers in their prime with very little injury history to scare people away. Guys like Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Roy Halladay, Clayton Kershaw and Felix Hernandez.
Even strong bounceback candidates like Adam Wainwright and Johan Santana are worth a look.
But the thing that makes guys like Verlander, Lee and Hamels such hot commodities is their offenses. The Tigers loaded up with Prince Fielder to clean the dish after Miguel Cabrera and Brannen Boesch. It’s a scary good lineup that could push Verlander’s win total even higher this year.
The Los Angeles Angels not only got the game’s best hitter in Albert Pujols, they also got the top free agent pitcher in C.J. Wilson to go along with Jered Weaver and Dan Haren.
The point is, a lot of good pitchers are going to have run support, meaning win totals to spike this year. And according to Intertops MLB Prop Odds, the highest win total for a pitcher in 2012 is likely to be over 22 with a +115 payout. If the winning total is 21, bettors get a +220 payday. Anything below that nets a +170 reward.