After one of the biggest off-seasons in a decade (although the NFL really snuffed it out pretty quickly didn’t it?) the dust is finally settling for the upcoming MLB season. And with just under two weeks remaining until opening day, the picture is getting clearer for individual award favorites.
Betting odds for stolen base king caught my attention first with the over/under total at 62.5 with a -115 line for either. The emergence of young shortstop Dee Gordon with the Dodgers might as well have just won this category, barring he stays in the majors the entire season. People are actually speculating at this point that he will be the next person to steal 100 bases, not just 65. In fact, at his current pace continued from last season, it’s been shown that as long as Gordon keeps a .300 OBP, he will be able to smash this over/under. The catch is that he is young and only coming into his first real full major league season with no real threat at the plate. Pitchers know he is no home run threat and will start to come after him and what he does after that will tell you all you need to know about his steal category.
The “highest wins total by a pitcher” is also a very interesting thing to bet on. With the over/under at 21.5 with a -115 line for both, it is hard not to feel optimism that another pitcher can do what Justin Verlander did last year. Not only did Verlander win 25 games, but Ian Kennedy came very close with 21 and he is still young. With the National League losing two of its biggest hitters to free agency and Ryan Howard to injury, pitchers will be smelling blood and coming after hitters with no protection behind them.
Pitchers, although dominant, have still never touched the strikeout totals of Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez, or Curt Schilling since their retirements. The over/under to reach 250.5 with a -115 line only really falls in the category of either Justin Verlander, Roy Halladay, Clayton Kershaw, or Cliff Lee.
Not only are starters given odds, but there is a bet going on right now for the over/under for closers as well to reach 47.5 saves with the line at -115. Jose Valverde was the only closer that could reach that mark last year and only Brian Wilson the year before. We have moved on from the usual names of Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman leading the way to electric young arms like Craig Kimbrel, Drew Storen, and Jordan Walden.
The last few categories are one’s I’d prefer to not name directly. Old-school that way. Bovada.com has a section for both “how many no-hitters will be thrown this season?” (their words, not mine) and “will anyone throw a no-hitter/perfect game?” that you can check out at the bottom of the player prop list. The odds of someone throwing any one of these gems has gone way up due to the amazingly high totals in the past few years. Players like Francisco Liriano, Dallas Braden, and Armando Galarraga (yes, he did) have all shown that it doesn’t take a superstar to accomplish the feat, therefore making it more likely.
For more on the odds on MLB stat leaders in other key stats like homeruns, hits, saves, etc… check out the betting odds on Bovada.