The Los Angeles Dodgers, sporting the best best record at 24-11, have made gamblers a lot of money so far, but might become vulnerable in the next couple weeks with the loss of Matt Kemp. The All-Star center fielder came up lame over the weekend and was put on the DL with a strained hamstring. He’s out for at least the next two weeks, and gamblers should adjust their betting strategy for the rest of the month.
With him in the lineup, the Dodgers shot to third in Bovada’s National League Champion Betting Futures at 6/1. They’ve covered even when they’ve lost. Sure, they’ve done it as a team, not just through Kemp (he was hitless in his last four games before hitting the DL, and Los Angeles still won all four). The team can still win games without him and its moneyline odds won’t change that dramatically, says Las Vegas lines consultant Peter Korner.
“It’s tough to factor in his impact when you have nine guys on the field. It’s not like a quarterback being out in football or a point guard in basketball,” he told Covers. “He’s only getting up four times a game. How much can he do? One or two hits, maybe. It doesn’t have the same impact when you know he’s out in advance.”
But we’re not always looking for a moneyline win. Kemp is the type of player that can help the Dodgers cover more often than not and keep a game close. He has been that player for Los Angeles this year, improving off his sensational 2011 campaign with an even better start now. Kemp is swatting .359 with 12 home runs and 28 RBIs through just a month and a half and has the Dodgers atop the NL West standings. MLB Betting Lines are usually 1 1/2-run spreads, meaning one player can surely make a difference covering, even if he doesn’t always impact a win.
That’s what makes his injury so troubling. Not so much in the long term, but for right now. Bettors have made piles of cash on Los Angeles this year, and will have to ease up on them until he returns from the DL. That will at least be two weeks from now, and maybe longer if the injury lingers.
He’s been battling soreness since May 5 and this could end up being a chronic thing, which would derail the potential for a historic season, matching what Josh Hamilton is doing right now in the AL.
Maybe we’re getting ahead of ourselves, but with no one else lighting it up in the NL right now, Kemp seems likely to capture that elusive MVP he deserved last year.
He needs to stay on the field to do it.
The Dodgers won’t see much trouble until this weekend, finishing a two-game series against the Diamondbacks last night, then starting a series against the San Diego Padres. But a showdown between the NL’s two best teams starts on Friday when Los Angeles hosts the St. Louis Cardinals. There, we’ll get a gauge to Kemp’s importance.