The NL West is an absolutely fascinating division that could wind up looking any one of a number of ways when it’s all said and done. The Dodgers, Rockies, Diamondbacks and Giants all have their fair share of strengths and weaknesses going in, and who emerges as top dog by year’s end largely depends on who is best able to maximize those strengths and minimize those weaknesses.
Last season the Dodgers finished third in the NL West with an 82-79 mark, but the hope is that less ownership distractions and some experience for the team’s young guns will change their fortunes in 2012. In terms of pitching, Clayton Kershaw is Clayton Kershaw, but that’s not the interesting storyline to watch with this team. Rather the interesting storyline to watch is how Javy Guerra will fare. In theory Guerra should fill the closer role quite nicely after proving himself with a solid 21 saves last year in place of Jonathan Broxton. At the same time, Kenley Jansen is an absolute stud will make a strong case for playing time as well. At the moment Don Mattingly maintains that Guerra will close and that Jansen will be the set-up man, but how permanent that’ll be obviously depends on performance.
In terms of offensive production, L.A. still has the guy who should’ve been the MVP last year in Matt Kemp (.324 with 39 home runs, 124 RBIs and 40 steals sans failed drug tests). Unfortunately beyond Kemp, the cupboard is pretty bare. If Andre Ethier and James Loney step it up this year, the Dodgers could be a force. If not, then they might still be a force thanks to pitching the general unsteadiness of the NL West, but they could also fall flat on their face. The Dodgers are +600 to win the division according to the most current 2012 NL West betting odds.
The San Francisco Giants finished last year with an 86-76 mark, good enough for second place in the NL West. The team will come back looking largely the same this season as last, with the lone exception being the loss of Ramon Ramirez. All things considered, though, the team shouldn’t have much trouble replacing him with a plethora of depth in the pen itching for the opportunity to add a little responsibility to their plates.
San Francisco’s other major trades in swapping Jonathon Sanchez to the Royals for Melky Cabrera was interesting too, as it’ll result in a pretty substantial defensive upgrade in left field and the 18ish homers plus 87ish RBIs that he’s likely to be good for. Couple all that with the returns of Buster Posey and Freddy Sanchez this year (both missed the second half of last season) and you see why the Giants are +120 to win the division this season. Stability and incremental upgrades are just generally a solid combination.
The Arizona Diamondbacks finished last year with a 94-68 mark, good enough for first place in the NL West. The good news is that the team remained largely intact, full of young players with reasonable contracts that are hoping to fly under the radar again. The bad news is that a lot of the success that they experienced last year was the direct byproduct of a circus in Los Angeles and the Giants being off their game. That’s unlikely to repeat this year.
Nevertheless, J.J. Putz and David Hernandez should be solid for this team in 2012, and the addition of Craig Breslow is one of the least talked about big moves in the NL. From an offensive standpoint, this squad scored the fourth most runs in the NL last year, so theoretically that shouldn’t be a concern. However, because they’re all so young, you don’t really know what you’ll get from these guys. In the same way that they caught a wave and rode it to success last year, you have wonder how they’ll react if things go bad early on this year. The Diamondbacks are +200 to win this division.
The Colorado Rockies finished 73-89 last season, good enough for fourth in the NL West. Looking to change that, Colorado made a number of pretty substantial trades during the offseason. Unfortunately that didn’t do much to address the team’s uncertainty in the bullpen. Heading into this season you have a lot of doubt in Spring Training regarding who gets what spot in the rotation; besides Jeremy Guthrie and Jhoulys Chacin, it’s really hard to predict what you’ll get out of any of these guys come the regular season.
The youth of this bullpen is a major question mark, and when you think about how much this team upgraded itself talent wise via all these transactions, it’s a bit surprising that they didn’t opt to stabilize themselves with any sort of veteran leadership. This pitching could be really good. But we won’t know if it is or it isn’t until we see it. Offensively this team is legit from the top down, and if we were to couple these guys with even a mildly reliable pitching squad, the Rockies could win this division. Unfortunately great offense is meaningless unless you have the other components necessary for success – which Colorado may or may not. As it stands, the Rockies are +600 to win the NL West.
The San Diego Padres finished last year with 71-91 mark, good enough for fifth in the division. Come the end of 2012, they’ll find themselves right back in a spot that’s very familiar to them – last place in the NL West. San Diego management spent the summer trading away key pieces for young players that may or may not eventually become good players, and it did absolutely nothing to address the problems that this team will no doubt have with its weak starting rotation. In many ways it felt like management knew it was relegated to the bottom of this division and just toyed with the roster for the heck of it. Not surprisingly, the Padres have +2000 odds to win the NL West this year.
2012 NL West Betting Odds – click on image to bet or see the updated odds (if available)
